段永平说茅台股价还能回2600元，你敢信吗？

Group 1 - Moutai's peak performance is considered to be over, with sales expected to struggle in the future [4][21] - The number of high-end restaurants in mainland China has decreased significantly, with a nearly 50% reduction in the number of thousand-yuan restaurants compared to three years ago [15][16] - The high-end dining sector is facing severe challenges, with a reported 88.8% drop in profits for high-end restaurants in Beijing in the first half of 2025 [18][21] Group 2 - The overall consumer sentiment is declining, leading to increased savings and reduced spending across various demographics [6][10] - Moutai's revenue growth has slowed, with a 6.36% increase in revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 compared to a much higher growth rate of 16.91% in 2024 [31][32] - The luxury goods market in China has been experiencing a downturn, with continuous negative growth recorded for six consecutive quarters starting in 2024 [21][25] Group 3 - The aging population and declining number of wealthy individuals are impacting Moutai's consumer base, as many older consumers are unable to continue drinking [35][29] - The real estate market is also struggling, with significant declines in housing prices and a decrease in land auction revenues, further affecting Moutai's sales environment [26][28] - The changing economic landscape and consumer behavior indicate that Moutai may not return to its previous peak without significant shifts in employment and consumer confidence [37][38]