UBS(US:UBS) Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2025-11-21 13:47Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin is experiencing a significant decline, heading towards its worst monthly performance since 2022, with UBS warning that the market may need to undergo a "thorough washout" before turning optimistic [1][12]. Market Performance - On November 21, Bitcoin dropped as much as 6% to $81,500, with Ethereum and other smaller tokens also experiencing deep declines. Bitcoin's cumulative drop for the month has reached approximately 25% [1][4]. - The current prices of major cryptocurrencies include Bitcoin at $83,545.25, Ethereum at $2,733.81, and XRP at $1.91, all showing significant percentage declines over various time frames [3]. Market Dynamics - The recent crash led to nearly $1 billion in positions being liquidated during overnight trading, raising concerns about a deepening bear market in the cryptocurrency sector [4][8]. - The market is currently characterized by forced liquidations, liquidity shortages, and extreme panic, despite some positive factors such as increasing institutional adoption and favorable political attitudes towards cryptocurrencies [7][12]. Analyst Insights - UBS analyst George Redma indicated that the ongoing decline could force retail investors to sell their holdings, suggesting that a complete washout may be necessary for the market to adopt a more positive stance by year-end [6][12]. - Comparisons have been made to the cryptocurrency market crash in June 2022, with analysts noting that the current situation mirrors that period, dominated by forced liquidations and extreme fear [6][12]. - Morgan Stanley analysts have pointed out potential risks for companies like MicroStrategy (MSTR) due to upcoming MSCI and Nasdaq reviews, which could further impact market sentiment [11].