KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-11-21 19:21Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in the price of Moutai reflects a significant shift in market sentiment, driven by increased supply and changing consumer behavior, leading to a broader impact on the high-end liquor market [1][3][5] Group 1: Price Trends - On January 21, the wholesale reference price for Moutai was updated, showing a drop of 25 yuan for original boxes to 1665 yuan per bottle and a 5 yuan drop for loose bottles to 1650 yuan, continuing a recent trend of price declines [1] - Moutai's price drop is attributed to increased supply as the company released additional stock in November, easing previous supply constraints and allowing buyers more negotiating power [3] - The decline in original box Moutai prices is more pronounced than that of loose bottles, indicating a diminishing perception of its investment value [3][5] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The slowdown in sales velocity and reduced corporate purchasing orders have contributed to the supply-demand imbalance, with personal consumers becoming more cautious in their purchases [3] - Some distributors, facing inventory pressure from previous high prices, are now lowering prices to recover funds, creating a ripple effect of price reductions across the market [3][5] - The actions of influential traders clearing their Moutai holdings have amplified the price decline, leading to a loss of confidence among retail investors [5] Group 3: Consumer Impact - The price drop has benefited ordinary consumers, with reports of increased availability and lower prices for Moutai on e-commerce platforms, allowing consumers to purchase at reduced rates [5] - The shift in consumer behavior is correcting the previous market anomaly where buying was not aligned with actual consumption [5] Group 4: Collectible Market Changes - There are signs of differentiation in the collectible market, with older and commemorative Moutai maintaining stable prices while interest in new vintage Moutai has waned [7] - The official pricing from Moutai remains unchanged at 1499 yuan, creating a significant gap with the wholesale market, which may need to be corrected by market forces [7] Group 5: Broader Economic Implications - The fluctuations in Moutai prices are seen as a barometer for high-end consumer spending, raising questions about overall consumer capacity [9] - The evolving price landscape is prompting a reevaluation of Moutai's role in the market, as it transitions from a "hard currency" to a more nuanced asset [9]