Nvidia(US:NVDA) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-11-22 16:52Market Overview - The A-share market is experiencing a significant downturn, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping approximately 200 points in just six trading days, nearing the 3800-point level [1] - A notable "long bearish candle" was recorded on the weekly chart, indicating a strong selling pressure [1] Individual Stock Performance - A decline of around 10% in individual stocks is common, with many previously strong stocks facing consecutive trading halts, leading to substantial losses for investors [2] Market Sentiment - There are questions regarding whether the current market adjustment is a normal technical correction or a sign of a true market peak [3] - Increased panic selling was observed, particularly on Friday, with a significant rise in trading volume, characterized by a desire to exit positions regardless of price [3] External Positive News - Two external positive developments emerged over the weekend: potential easing of sales restrictions on Nvidia's H200 chips and renewed expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December [4] - These developments are crucial as they relate to technology growth logic and liquidity risk appetite, which could significantly impact the market in the coming weeks [4] Nvidia H200 Chip Sales - The potential easing of restrictions on Nvidia's H200 chip sales to China reflects a marginal improvement in economic relations, with increased interactions between the two countries [5] - Nvidia faces substantial pressure as China is a critical market for AI computing power, and a complete ban would mean forfeiting significant revenue [7] - Domestic AI chip manufacturers are reportedly closing the performance gap with Nvidia's H200, indicating a shift towards competitive dynamics rather than a complete market exit for Nvidia [10][12] Market and Sector Impact - Short-term impacts include emotional volatility and sector differentiation, with potential sell-offs in certain domestic alternatives while Nvidia-linked companies may see a short-term boost [13][14] - In the medium to long term, the narrative of domestic chip alternatives remains unchanged, focusing on self-reliance and technological independence despite the easing of restrictions [16] Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations - Recent weak employment data has led to a resurgence in expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, with probabilities now exceeding 50% [18] - A potential rate cut would lower U.S. Treasury yields, enhancing the attractiveness of risk assets, including stocks and commodities, and easing pressures on emerging markets [19] A-share Market Implications - The combination of the Nvidia news and the Fed's rate cut expectations may shift market sentiment from panic to rational recovery, with a likelihood of entering a phase of technical repair and consolidation [22] - The long-term outlook remains positive, with external liquidity trends shifting towards gradual easing, supporting A-share valuations [23] Technical Analysis - The weekly chart indicates a significant shift from a stable upward trend to a clear breakdown, with key support around the 3700-point level [27][31] - The market's ability to stabilize around the 3865-point level will be crucial for determining the next steps, with potential for either a recovery or further declines [33] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to maintain a balanced portfolio, focusing on companies with strong fundamentals and reasonable valuations, while avoiding high-risk speculative plays [34] - The current market phase should be viewed as a technical correction rather than a definitive end to the bull market, emphasizing the importance of strategic asset allocation [34]