信达证券：流动性和通胀是美股波动的核心

Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in the US stock market is primarily driven by tightening overseas liquidity, declining market risk appetite, and significant concerns regarding the extent of AI bubble [1][2][3] Group 1: US Market Conditions - The tightening of overseas liquidity is attributed to hawkish statements from the Federal Reserve and strong employment and inflation data, which have dampened expectations for interest rate cuts in December [2] - Market risk appetite has decreased due to warnings from Federal Reserve officials about risks in the private credit sector and adjustments in the cryptocurrency market, leading to increased selling pressure [2] - There is considerable disagreement among market participants regarding the degree of AI bubble, with some institutional investors taking profits [2] Group 2: Valuation and Financial Pressure - The current valuation levels indicate that the S&P 500's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is at a high range, nearing the peak levels seen during the tech bubble, while the Nasdaq index's P/E ratio, although high, is still significantly below those peak levels [2] - The concentration of market capitalization among leading tech companies is high, with many having P/E ratios at elevated levels and financial pressures approaching those seen during the tech bubble, leading to increased debt financing and uncertainty regarding buybacks and dividends [2] - The core factors influencing the magnitude and duration of overseas market volatility are identified as monetary policy and inflation, rather than earnings [2][3] Group 3: A-Share Market Outlook - Given that A-share valuations are significantly lower than those of US stocks and the diminishing influence of foreign capital, the impact of US market weakness on A-shares is expected to gradually decrease [1][3] - There are opportunities for A-shares to rise due to potential positive changes in policies or funding towards the end of the year and into early next year [1][3]