Core Viewpoint - The company's performance in the first three quarters of 2025 aligns with expectations, showing signs of stabilization despite a year-over-year decline in revenue and net profit [1][2]. Performance Review - For 1-3Q25, the company reported revenue of 19.891 billion yuan, a year-over-year decrease of 12.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.511 billion yuan, down 7.1% year-over-year. Adjusted net profit was 3.079 billion yuan, reflecting a 23.0% decline year-over-year, but overall results met expectations [1]. - In 3Q25, revenue reached 6.618 billion yuan, marking a year-over-year increase of 3.4% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 5.7%, indicating slight positive growth and stabilization in performance [1]. Development Trends - In 3Q25, revenue from finished drugs improved sequentially, totaling 5.202 billion yuan, with a year-over-year increase of 1.6% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 9.6%. Notable performance included: - Neurological disease revenue: 1.914 billion yuan (YoY -4.2%) - Oncology revenue: 0.594 billion yuan (YoY -47.2%) - Anti-infection revenue: 0.826 billion yuan (YoY -8.6%) - Cardiovascular disease revenue: 0.474 billion yuan (YoY +17.8%) - Respiratory disease revenue: 0.320 billion yuan (YoY +72.7%) - Digestive system revenue: 0.248 billion yuan (YoY +13.7%) - Other fields: 0.362 billion yuan (YoY +25.6%) [1]. - The company’s raw material drug revenue was 1.415 billion yuan, showing a year-over-year increase of 10.5% but a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 6.4% [1]. Innovation and R&D Progress - The company is advancing its small nucleic acid pipeline, with key projects like PCSK9 expected to enter Phase III trials by the end of 2025. Other clinical projects include LPa, AGT, ANGPTL3, and C5, targeting chronic diseases such as dyslipidemia and hypertension [2]. - The company is also exploring targeted delivery systems for various conditions, including eye, lung, fat, and muscle diseases. Key in-development products include Anituzumab (HER2 dual epitope), SYS6010 (EGFR ADC), and SYS6091 (HER2 ADC) [2]. Business Development Strategy - In 1-3Q25, the company achieved licensing revenue of 1.540 billion yuan. In 3Q25, it licensed SYH2086 (an oral small molecule GLP-1) to Madrigal Pharmaceuticals for global development and commercialization outside of China, which includes an upfront payment of 120 million USD and potential milestone payments of up to 1.955 billion USD, along with double-digit sales royalties [2]. - The company has several innovative products in its R&D pipeline, such as EGFR ADC and SiRNA series, which are expected to lead to more licensing agreements and milestone revenue recognition [2]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - Due to increased R&D investment, the company has lowered its net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 12% and 15% to 4.760 billion yuan and 5.353 billion yuan, respectively. The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.1 times for 2025 and 15.0 times for 2026 [2]. - The company maintains an outperform rating while reducing the target price by 15% to 11.00 HKD, which corresponds to 24.4 times and 21.4 times the projected earnings for 2025 and 2026, respectively, indicating a potential upside of 42.5% [2].
石药集团(01093.HK)：1-3Q25业绩企稳 研发管线持续推进