石药集团(1093.HK):3Q收入重回增长 创新管线多点开花

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue of 19.89 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year decrease of 12.3%, but a growth of 3.4% year-on-year in Q3, with a net profit of 3.51 billion yuan, down 7.1% year-on-year, but a significant increase of 27% year-on-year in Q3 [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Revenue for Q3 2025 was 9.6 billion yuan, with an estimated internal profit of nearly 600 million yuan [1]. - The decline in revenue for the first three quarters was primarily due to the impact of the collection of authorized income in the drug business, which has now narrowed, and the gradual dissipation of the impact from the procurement of Duomeisu [1][2]. - The company expects continued improvement in revenue in Q4 2025, driven by the market expansion of new products such as Omaguzumab and Mingfule [1][2]. Group 2: Drug Business Outlook - The drug business revenue decreased by 17.2% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025, but the decline narrowed significantly compared to Q2 [2]. - The company anticipates a return to positive growth in the drug business by 2026, supported by the absence of major products in the 14th batch of centralized procurement and the market expansion of already launched products [2]. - New products such as TG103, HER2 bispecific antibodies, and Bai Zhi II are expected to be approved in 2026, contributing to revenue growth [2]. Group 3: Clinical Development - The company is actively advancing the clinical trials for EGFR ADC both domestically and internationally, with plans for Phase III trials in the near future [3]. - The focus of the clinical trials includes NSCLC classic mutations and wild-type cases, indicating a competitive ADC pipeline with strong data quality and enrollment [3]. Group 4: Business Development and Pipeline - The company confirmed a business development (BD) revenue of 1.54 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, with four transactions completed [4]. - The company has a robust pipeline in oncology, metabolism, autoimmune diseases, and small nucleic acids, which is expected to support BD efforts in 2026 [4]. - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 4.552 billion yuan, 4.628 billion yuan, and 5.029 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS estimates [4].