Nvidia(US:NVDA) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-11-23 08:08Core Viewpoint - The A-share market in 2025 is expected to experience a structural market driven by technological innovation after three years of deep adjustment, while concerns about an "AI bubble" are emerging in both US and Chinese markets [1] Group 1: Underlying Driving Logic of the Market - The unique driving force of the current market is a profound change in risk preference, despite a slowdown in profit growth and a rise in valuation levels [2][5] - The overall profit growth of A-share listed companies is expected to remain in a downward trend in 2024, while market valuation continues to rise, indicating that the driving force is not from the fundamental side [2] - Three key factors are driving the systematic enhancement of risk preference: 1. A phase of easing in US-China relations has injected a "certainty premium" into the market [5][6] 2. Major events like the 9.3 military parade have highlighted China's status as a major power, enhancing confidence in RMB assets [6] 3. Breakthroughs in technological innovation and increased capital investment in the tech sector have led to a systematic reassessment of Chinese tech assets [6] Group 2: Fund Behavior Analysis - The current market shows three distinct characteristics in fund behavior: sustained inflow of long-term funds, cautious entry of institutions and retail investors, and significant expansion of ETFs [7][10] - Long-term funds have been steadily entering the market, solidifying the market bottom, with a notable increase in net inflows into the four major CSI 300 ETFs since early 2024 [10] - The entry pace of institutional and retail funds has been relatively restrained, with institutions gradually increasing their positions rather than making rapid large-scale investments [11][19] Group 3: ETF Expansion and Structure - The overall characteristics of ETF funds in this market include a steady increase in the scale of stock ETFs and a shift in focus from broad-based products to industry and thematic products [21][25] - By the end of September, the total scale of stock ETFs reached approximately 3.7 trillion yuan, with a notable shift from broad-based indices to sector-specific ETFs [25][26] - The internal structure of ETFs is changing, with a decrease in the share of scale index ETFs and an increase in the share of thematic and industry ETFs, indicating a concentration of funds towards market leaders [26][28] Group 4: Market Characteristics and Future Outlook - The current market is characterized by a broad "pan-tech" theme, with a wide coverage and sustained duration, unlike previous narrow themes [33][35] - The market's concern about a potential repeat of past bubbles is mitigated by the relatively low expansion of the tech sector's market capitalization compared to previous bull markets [38] - The current stage of the AI market in A-shares corresponds to the second phase of the US AI industry's evolution, suggesting that the AI market has not yet reached its peak [43]