POP MART(HK:09992) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-11-23 17:49Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the潮玩 (trendy toy) industry is experiencing rapid growth in China, driven by factors such as rising disposable income, emotional consumption, and the emergence of quality domestic IPs. The market size is projected to grow from 229 billion to 763 billion yuan from 2020 to 2024, with a CAGR of 35.11% [3][40]. -潮玩 is characterized by its integration of trendy culture, art, design, and various elements, appealing primarily to individuals aged 15 and above, and it serves as a collectible with social and emotional connections [2][19]. - The潮玩 industry value chain is centered around IP, with upstream IP suppliers having strong bargaining power based on the scarcity and popularity of their IPs, while midstream manufacturers face intense competition and lower bargaining power [6][22]. Group 2 - The Chinese潮玩 market is currently fragmented, with the top five companies holding only 26.4% of the market share, indicating significant room for growth compared to Japan's 45% [3][8]. - The report draws parallels with the Japanese toy industry, which saw growth despite economic downturns due to a shift in consumer focus towards anime and gaming, suggesting that similar trends may occur in China as emotional consumption rises [7][26]. - The rise of quality domestic IPs, such as《原神》 and《黑神话:悟空》, is expected to enhance the潮玩 market, although there remains a significant gap in IP value and revenue compared to the US and Japan [3][10]. Group 3 - Multiple factors are driving the expansion of the潮玩 market in China, including increased disposable income, a shift towards emotional consumption, and the growth of the泛二次元 (broad two-dimensional) user base, which is projected to reach 503 million by 2024 [40][48]. - The emotional consumption trend is particularly strong among younger demographics, with 78% of emotional consumers being born in the 1990s and 2000s, highlighting a shift in consumer behavior towards seeking emotional fulfillment through purchases [44][47]. - The rapid increase in offline潮玩 retail stores, such as泡泡玛特 and TOPTOY, enhances consumer experience and supports market growth, with泡泡玛特's store count rising from 329 to 401 between 2022 and 2024 [52][54].