【IPO前哨】科兴制药冲刺“A+H”，业绩波动背后有何隐忧？

Core Viewpoint - The company, Kexing Pharmaceutical, is attempting to balance innovation and commercialization as it aims to launch an "A+H" dual-platform financing strategy by submitting its IPO application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with the funds primarily allocated for R&D and high-value drug pipeline development [2] Group 1: Product Portfolio and Market Position - Kexing Pharmaceutical focuses on the development, production, and commercialization of recombinant proteins, antibodies, and targeted delivery therapies, particularly in oncology and autoimmune therapy, utilizing a "self-research + licensing" dual development model [3] - The company currently has 9 commercialized products and 15 projects in the pipeline, with 2 in Phase III clinical trials and 3 in Phase II or I, covering various treatment areas including antiviral, hematology, and oncology [3] - The core product, SINOGEN (Interferon α1b injection), is projected to dominate the Chinese short-acting interferon α1b market with a 55.2% market share in 2024, maintaining the top position for six consecutive years since 2019 [5] - EPOSINO (Erythropoietin injection) is expected to achieve a 16.7% market share in 2024, ranking second in the domestic market since 2021, with sales covering over 30 countries [5] Group 2: Financial Performance and Revenue Concentration - Kexing Pharmaceutical's revenue has shown significant volatility, with 99.6% of its income reliant on six core products, indicating a highly concentrated revenue structure [7][9] - Revenue figures for 2022 to 2024 are projected at RMB 1.316 billion, RMB 1.259 billion, and RMB 1.407 billion respectively, with net profits fluctuating from a loss of RMB 92.8 million in 2022 to a profit of RMB 27 million in 2024 [7][8] - The core products are in markets with limited growth potential, with the interferon α market expected to reach RMB 3.1 billion in 2024, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of only 4.5% from 2019 to 2024 [9] Group 3: International Expansion and Future Prospects - The company has been expanding internationally since 2000 and is now one of the Chinese biopharmaceutical firms with the broadest overseas coverage, with overseas sales projected to reach RMB 224 million in 2024, accounting for 16% of total revenue [11] - The successful fundraising from the Hong Kong IPO could provide essential support for Kexing Pharmaceutical's R&D and international expansion efforts, but the ability to overcome growth bottlenecks will depend on the progress of innovative drug development and commercialization [12]