跑输大盘6年后，美国中小盘发起大反攻！摩根大通：未来3-6年或迎30%-60%超额收益

Core Viewpoint - After several years of underperformance, U.S. small-cap stocks are at a critical market turning point, poised for valuation recovery and macro-driven benefits, with potential excess returns of 30% to 60% over the next 3 to 6 years [1][2]. Valuation Discount - U.S. small-cap stocks have significantly underperformed large-cap stocks, with the Russell 2000 index down 60% relative to the S&P 500 since its peak in 2021, marking one of the largest historical performance gaps outside the tech bubble [2][4]. Macro Environment Changes - The previous headwinds of rising interest rates and wage inflation that suppressed small-cap profitability have now turned into tailwinds, with expectations of declining interest rates alleviating financial burdens on small businesses [4][5]. - Wage growth has decreased from a peak of 5.9% in May 2022 to 3.7%, improving the earnings outlook for small-cap stocks as these companies are more labor-intensive [4][5]. Policy Environment - A favorable policy environment for small-cap stocks is emerging, characterized by tax cuts and tariff exemptions that benefit domestic-focused businesses, which are more prevalent among small-cap firms [5][6]. - Small-cap stocks are better insulated from tariff impacts and currency fluctuations due to their lower reliance on international markets, enhancing their competitive position in the new policy cycle [6]. Market Dynamics - The dynamics of market funding are shifting, particularly regarding stock buybacks, which have been predominantly executed by large-cap companies. As interest rates rise, the ability of these companies to repurchase shares is constrained, leveling the playing field between small and large-cap stocks [6].