Bank of America(US:BAC) Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2025-11-25 02:53Group 1 - The Federal Reserve officials have recently expressed dovish signals, significantly increasing the market's expectations for a rate cut in December, with the probability rising to 80% [1][2] - The S&P 500 index rose nearly 1.6%, marking its largest gain in six weeks, while the Nasdaq increased by 2.7%, achieving its best single-day performance since May [1] - However, Bank of America warns of serious internal divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding the December decision, indicating that the dovish voices do not represent a consensus [1][2] Group 2 - The September employment data has intensified the debate within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), with conflicting indicators leading to differing opinions among members [2] - The unemployment rate is approaching 4.5%, suggesting a loosening labor market, while job growth, income increases, and labor participation rates remain strong [2] - Despite dovish signals from Williams and Waller, other FOMC members, including Barr and Goolsbee, express caution regarding inflation risks and oppose a December rate cut [2] Group 3 - Bank of America suggests that a "dovish pause" may be a more prudent choice for Powell than pushing for a "hawkish cut," allowing for maximum flexibility for future actions [3][4] - The upcoming data releases between the December and January meetings, including three employment reports and two CPI reports, could provide critical insights for the Fed's decision-making [4] - A forced "hawkish cut" could backfire, as the market may not trust the commitment to a future pause, leading to potential opposition from regional Fed presidents [4]