Goldman Sachs(US:GS) Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2025-11-25 03:34Core Insights - Goldman Sachs acknowledges a significant shift in the lithium market due to the explosive growth in energy storage system (ESS) demand, leading to a tighter short-term supply-demand balance, while the medium-term oversupply scenario remains unchanged [1][2]. Group 1: Short-term Market Dynamics - The price of lithium carbonate in China surged from $9,200 per ton in mid-September to over $11,000 per ton, prompting Goldman Sachs to revise its 2026 price forecast and delay the anticipated price correction to the second half of 2026 [1][2]. - The demand model for ESS has been significantly adjusted, with forecasts for ESS consumption in 2025 and 2026 raised to 589 GWh and 736 GWh, respectively, nearly doubling previous estimates [2]. Group 2: Long-term Supply Outlook - Despite the optimistic short-term outlook, Goldman Sachs maintains a bearish medium-term view, predicting a return to oversupply by 2027, with supply exceeding demand by 18% unless producers cut back on capacity expansion plans [1][3]. - The report anticipates that lithium prices will decline from $11,000 per ton in the first half of 2026 to $9,500 per ton in the second half, driven by increased supply from lithium spodumene and the resumption of lithium mica production [3]. Group 3: Price Projections - Goldman Sachs projects an average price of $10,250 per ton for 2026, which remains below CME futures prices, indicating a potential over-optimism in the current market [3]. - For 2027-2028, prices are expected to remain below the estimated incentive price range of $10,200 to $11,000 per ton, necessitating supply cuts to prevent excessive inventory accumulation [3].