工业富联18个交易日蒸发4500亿市值

Core Viewpoint - Industrial Fulian's stock price has experienced a significant decline despite maintaining strong fundamentals, raising concerns about its business model and market sentiment [1][2][5] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, Industrial Fulian reported revenue of 603.93 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 38.4%, and a net profit of 22.49 billion yuan, up 48.52% [2] - In Q3 alone, the company achieved revenue of 243.17 billion yuan, with net profit growth exceeding 60% [2] Market Sentiment and Stock Performance - The stock price fell over 30% from its peak on October 30 to November 24, resulting in a market capitalization drop of more than 450 billion yuan [2] - As of November 24, the stock closed at 55.94 yuan, significantly below the target price set by various institutions, which had previously estimated a price around 75 yuan [4] Analyst Expectations - Guosen Securities raised its profit forecast for Industrial Fulian, projecting net profits of 35.64 billion yuan, 69.31 billion yuan, and 87.46 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [3] - Huaan Securities also provided optimistic growth projections, estimating EPS of 1.82 yuan, 3.36 yuan, and 4.30 yuan for the same period [3] Business Model Concerns - Market worries have shifted from performance growth to potential adjustments in the business model, particularly regarding major clients' strategies in the L10/L11 segments [5][6] - If major clients decide to shift L11 operations in-house or diversify suppliers, it could downgrade Industrial Fulian's role from a high-value integrator to a mere assembler [6] Strategic Responses - Industrial Fulian is focusing on technological upgrades to enhance power efficiency and cooling capabilities for AI servers, which are critical as power consumption increases [7] - The company plans to adjust its share buyback program in response to the stock price drop, aiming to stabilize its market position [7]