FII(SH:601138) 2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao·2025-11-25 23:26Core Viewpoint - Industrial Fulian's stock price has experienced a significant decline despite maintaining strong fundamentals, raising concerns about its business model and market position in the AI server industry [1][2][5]. Group 1: Stock Performance - On November 24, Industrial Fulian's stock price fell by 7.80% to 55.94 CNY per share, marking a two-month low and a cumulative decline of over 14% in three trading days [1]. - Since reaching a peak of over 1500 billion CNY on October 30, the stock has dropped more than 30%, resulting in a market capitalization decrease of over 450 billion CNY [2]. - The stock's price-to-earnings ratio has decreased to approximately 28 times, significantly lower than the previous target price range set by institutions [4]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, Industrial Fulian reported revenue of 603.93 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 38.4%, and a net profit of 22.49 billion CNY, up 48.52% [2]. - In the third quarter alone, the company achieved revenue of 243.17 billion CNY, with a net profit growth rate exceeding 60% [2]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Analyst Predictions - Despite strong financial results, market sentiment has diverged from optimistic forecasts by sell-side institutions, leading to a significant drop in stock price [2]. - Guosen Securities has raised its profit expectations for Industrial Fulian, predicting net profits of 35.64 billion CNY, 69.31 billion CNY, and 87.46 billion CNY for 2025-2027 [3]. - Huaan Securities also provided high growth guidance, forecasting earnings per share of 1.82 CNY, 3.36 CNY, and 4.30 CNY for the same period [3]. Group 4: Business Model Concerns - Market concerns have shifted from performance growth to the business model, particularly regarding potential adjustments by major clients in the L10/L11 business model [5][6]. - The L11 model positions Industrial Fulian as a high-value integrator in the AI server supply chain, and any shift back to a basic assembly role could lead to a revaluation of the company [6]. Group 5: Company Response and Strategic Actions - Industrial Fulian has clarified that its fourth-quarter operations are proceeding as planned, with no adjustments to profit targets [1]. - The company is focusing on technological upgrades to enhance power efficiency and cooling capabilities for AI servers, which are expected to drive future growth [7]. - In response to the stock price decline, the company plans to adjust its share buyback price limit and expedite the buyback process [7].