CICC(SH:601995) Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-11-26 00:00Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC indicates a trend reversal in the lithium battery sector starting from 2025, driven by stabilization in the supply chain prices and improvements in supply-demand structure, with energy storage expected to be a key growth driver [1][2] Group 1: Lithium Battery Market Outlook - From 2025 onwards, the lithium battery market is expected to enter a new growth cycle, with energy storage becoming a core growth point [1] - The domestic market for new energy vehicles is anticipated to benefit from increased battery capacity in passenger vehicles and the expansion of new usage scenarios, leading to sustained high growth in demand for power batteries [1] - In Europe, the demand is expected to accelerate with the initiation of a new car cycle [1] Group 2: Energy Storage Demand - The introduction of capacity pricing policies in various provinces in China is expected to enhance the economic viability of independent energy storage, with demand in 2026 likely to exceed expectations [1] - In the U.S. market, demand is anticipated to surge in the second half of 2025 due to tariff impacts, with AIDC storage demand expected to contribute additional growth post-2026 [1] Group 3: Supply-Demand Dynamics and Price Trends - A turning point in supply-demand dynamics is expected by 2025, with leading manufacturers operating at near full capacity, resulting in price increases in energy storage cells and related components [1] - CICC forecasts that capital expenditures in the battery sector will remain high in 2026, aligning with demand growth, while new capacity in the materials sector is expected to be limited, leading to improved utilization rates [1] Group 4: New Technology Developments - The solid-state battery technology is entering a critical phase, with full solid-state sulfide batteries expected to reach pilot production by 2025, and semi-solid oxide/polymer composite routes accelerating [2] - By 2026, small-scale production and trial installations of full solid-state sulfide batteries are anticipated, with advancements in process routes and material systems [2] Group 5: Investment Strategies - The report recommends focusing on energy storage demand exceeding expectations, which will accelerate the sector's reversal trend, highlighting lithium battery materials, batteries, and related components [2] - New technologies, particularly solid-state and sodium batteries, are identified as high-growth investment directions, with continued breakthroughs in industrialization expected in 2026 [2] - The report also emphasizes the potential for value reassessment driven by policy support and the recovery of charging station construction [2]