港股AI进攻时最锋利的矛

Core Viewpoint - Recent market adjustments in AI technology stocks are attributed to tightening liquidity in the U.S. and a decrease in the probability of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, leading to a shift in global risk appetite towards safer assets. However, the narrative around AI is not over but accelerating, with expectations of a new market rally once liquidity issues are resolved [1][20]. Market Conditions - The tightening of market liquidity has raised concerns about whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in December, with the probability of a cut now at approximately 85% [4][6]. - The recent downturn in U.S. stocks coincided with the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, while the subsequent dovish comments led to a rebound in AI stocks [5][8]. AI Sector Dynamics - The market's fears of an AI bubble may be unfounded, as competition in AI models remains intense, with companies like Google and Anthropic continuously innovating [14]. - Google's recent launch of the Gemini 3 model has sparked significant interest, with its stock rising over 13%, indicating substantial growth potential in AI valuations [14][16]. Performance of Key Companies - Tencent reported a 21% year-on-year increase in advertising revenue, driven by AI-enhanced targeting and increased ad loads [17]. - Alibaba's cloud division also saw a 34% year-on-year revenue growth, with AI-related products experiencing triple-digit growth for nine consecutive quarters [18]. Investment Opportunities - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF (159262) is highlighted as a strategic investment option, focusing on AI and semiconductor sectors, with a significant concentration in leading companies like Alibaba and Tencent [21][25]. - The ETF has shown strong performance, with a 47% increase over the past year, outperforming the Hang Seng Index [24]. Conclusion - The current adjustments in Hong Kong's tech stocks are primarily influenced by short-term liquidity constraints, but once these factors are alleviated, a strong performance in the tech sector is anticipated [20].