国盛证券熊园：2026年继续看好黄金和股票

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the long-term bullish outlook on gold prices, driven by macroeconomic factors and strategic asset allocation considerations, particularly in the context of U.S. political developments and global monetary policies [1][2]. Group 1: Gold Market Insights - The chief economist of Guosheng Securities, Dr. Xiong Yuan, holds a strong "strategic and tactical bullish" view on gold, predicting significant price movements around the U.S. midterm elections in 2026 [1]. - Historical data shows that consistent investment in gold since 2000 has yielded positive cumulative returns, indicating its importance as a key asset class beyond being a traditional safe haven [1]. - The ongoing trend of central banks increasing gold reserves reflects a long-term weakening of the dollar's credibility, reinforcing the bullish logic for gold [2]. Group 2: Macroeconomic Factors - The article highlights that the global monetary expansion over the past few decades, particularly in the last ten years, has created a favorable environment for gold as a hedge against inflation [2]. - The expectation of continued loose monetary policies in both the U.S. and China, including potential "double easing" in the U.S. by 2026, supports the strategic focus on gold [2]. Group 3: A-Share Market Outlook - The A-share market is viewed optimistically, supported by unexpected industrial competitiveness, particularly in sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals and artificial intelligence [3]. - Recent government policies aimed at stabilizing the economy and boosting market confidence, such as local government debt management and financial support mechanisms, are seen as positive indicators for the stock market [3]. - The transition phase of the Chinese economy from a real estate downturn to exploring new growth pillars positions the stock market as a key area for policy focus, potentially leading to a "slow bull" market [3]. Group 4: Bond Market Analysis - The bond market is expected to maintain a volatile trend in 2026, influenced by factors such as economic performance, inflation levels, monetary policy, and regulatory environment [4]. - The analysis suggests that without strong catalysts, various asset classes, including bonds, are likely to experience fluctuations rather than extreme movements, particularly in the year-end period [4].