EASTMONEY(SZ:300059) Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-11-26 11:06Core Insights - The outdoor consumption market in China is expected to experience strong and sustained growth, with 96% of outdoor consumers planning to continue their spending, and 27% intending to invest more in the future [1][2]. Group 1: Outdoor Consumption Trends - As of early April 2025, the number of outdoor sports participants in China has surpassed 400 million, indicating a participation rate of approximately 30%, which still has room to double compared to the U.S. [1] - The outdoor footwear and apparel market for Chinese brands is projected to grow at a CAGR of 17.4% from 2020 to 2024, significantly outpacing international brands' CAGR of 9.4% [1]. Group 2: Key Product Categories - For jackets, affordable options priced between 349-699 yuan dominate the market, while higher-priced jackets (699-1599 yuan and above) are experiencing sales growth rates of 26% and 24% respectively [3]. - Sunscreen clothing is primarily represented by new brands, with mainstream prices mostly below 200 yuan, while established brands like Camel and Bosideng are also entering this segment [3]. - Running shoes are becoming a focal point for brand competition, with performance being a key purchasing factor. The domestic running shoe market is expected to grow due to increased participation in running events and the rise of local brands offering competitive pricing [3]. Group 3: Seasonal Demand and Market Dynamics - A forecasted cold wave in China is expected to boost demand for down jackets, with the market projected to reach 2400-2500 billion yuan by 2025, indicating significant growth potential [4]. - The upcoming leap year in 2026 will extend the effective sales period for winter products, further benefiting down jacket sales [4]. Group 4: Manufacturing and Brand Recovery - The recovery of Nike's supply chain is anticipated, with improvements in inventory and gross margins expected by 2026, following a restructuring process similar to Adidas's recent reforms [5][6]. - Nike's revenue and net profit showed slight improvements, with a 1.1% increase in revenue but a 30.8% decline in net profit, indicating ongoing challenges during the inventory reduction phase [5]. Group 5: U.S. Apparel Market Inventory - As of July 2025, U.S. apparel inventory stands at approximately $86.5 billion, down 14.2% from its peak in August 2022, suggesting a healthier inventory situation [7]. - Recent tariff reductions on apparel from ASEAN countries are expected to alleviate concerns regarding brand ordering sentiment, as tariffs have decreased to around 20% [7].