Core Viewpoint - Guotou Securities has raised the target price for Tongcheng Travel (00780) to HKD 27.2 from HKD 24.9, maintaining a "Buy" rating due to strong revenue and adjusted net profit growth, driven by the robust performance of its core advertising platform Mintegral and the widespread adoption of its AI bidding products [1] Financial Performance - Total revenue reached RMB 5.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10%, aligning with expectations from both the firm and the market. Adjusted net profit rose 17% year-on-year to RMB 1.06 billion, slightly exceeding the firm's and market's expectations by 4% and 2%, respectively. The adjusted profit margin improved to 19.2%, up 1 and 3 percentage points year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, benefiting from enhanced operational efficiency [1] - Core OTA operating profit increased by 15% year-on-year to RMB 1.4 billion, with a stable operating profit margin of 31.2%, showing a 4 percentage point increase quarter-on-quarter [1] Core OTA Business Insights - In Q3, core OTA revenue grew by 15% year-on-year, with accommodation booking revenue also increasing by 15%, supported by a record high average daily room nights and a slight increase in ADR, outperforming the industry. High-quality hotel room nights rose by 20% year-on-year, continuing to increase its share of total room nights [2] - Transportation ticketing revenue grew by 9% year-on-year, with a stable monetization rate. International ticketing contributed 6% to transportation revenue, up 2 percentage points year-on-year [2] User Metrics - In Q3, the monthly paying users (MPU) reached 47.7 million, a 3% year-on-year increase, while annual paying users (APU) grew by 9% to 253 million. The ARPPU (Average Revenue Per Paying User) for the last 12 months was RMB 74 for total revenue and RMB 63 for core OTA revenue, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6% and 7%, respectively, indicating the platform's user scale advantage is gradually being realized [3] Financial Forecast - The firm anticipates a 17% year-on-year increase in core OTA revenue for Q4, with accommodation booking and transportation ticketing expected to grow by 15% and 9%, respectively. The domestic hotel booking revenue is primarily driven by room night growth. In the medium to long term, accommodation bookings are seen as the main growth driver, with an increasing share of high-star hotels expected to boost ADR. New accommodation scenarios are anticipated to provide additional growth in room nights [4] - For international business, the company projects that its contribution to total revenue could rise to 10-15% over the next 2-3 years, focusing on enhancing user stickiness and volume for international ticketing and building international hotel supply capabilities. Future attention should be given to the increase in high-star hotel room nights domestically, progress in international business, and synergies with Wanda Hotel Management [4]
国投证券：维持同程旅行“买入”评级 关注酒店间夜量及ADR提升