Core Viewpoint - Guotou Securities has raised the target price for Tongcheng Travel (00780) to HKD 27.2 from HKD 24.9, maintaining a "Buy" rating due to strong revenue and adjusted net profit growth, driven by the robust performance of its core advertising platform Mintegral and the application of AI technology in service enhancement [1] Financial Performance - Total revenue reached RMB 5.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10%, aligning with expectations from both the firm and the market. Adjusted net profit rose 17% year-on-year to RMB 1.06 billion, slightly exceeding the firm's and market's expectations by 4% and 2% respectively, with an adjusted profit margin of 19.2%, up 1 and 3 percentage points year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, benefiting from improved operational efficiency [1] - Core OTA operating profit increased by 15% year-on-year to RMB 1.4 billion, with a stable operating profit margin of 31.2%, showing a 4 percentage point increase quarter-on-quarter [1] Core OTA Business Insights - In Q3, core OTA revenue grew by 15% year-on-year, with accommodation booking revenue also increasing by 15%, supported by a record high average daily room nights and a slight increase in ADR, outperforming the industry. High-quality hotel room nights rose by 20% year-on-year, increasing its share of total room nights [2] - Transportation ticketing revenue grew by 9% year-on-year, with a stable monetization rate, and international ticketing contributed 6% to transportation revenue, up 2 percentage points year-on-year [2] User Metrics - In Q3, the monthly paying users (MPU) reached 47.7 million, a 3% year-on-year increase, while annual paying users (APU) grew by 9% to 253 million. The ARPPU (Average Revenue Per Paying User) for the last 12 months was RMB 74 for total revenue and RMB 63 for core OTA revenue, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6% and 7% respectively, indicating the gradual release of the platform's user scale advantage [3] Financial Forecast - The firm anticipates a 17% year-on-year increase in core OTA revenue for Q4, with accommodation booking and transportation ticketing expected to grow by 15% and 9% respectively. The domestic hotel booking revenue is primarily driven by room night growth. The firm sees long-term potential in the business, with accommodation bookings as the main growth driver, and an increase in high-star hotel bookings expected to boost ADR. New accommodation scenarios are anticipated to provide additional room night growth [4] - For international business, the company projects that its contribution to total revenue could rise to 10-15% over the next 2-3 years, focusing on enhancing user stickiness and volume for international ticketing and building international hotel supply capacity. Future attention should be on the increase in high-star hotel room nights domestically, progress in international business, and collaboration with Wanda Hotel Management [4]
国投证券：维持同程旅行(00780)“买入”评级 关注酒店间夜量及ADR提升