“卡车电动化”将抵消乘用车的放缓，成为宁德时代业务重要支撑

Group 1 - The electric commercial truck market, particularly electric heavy-duty trucks (eHDT), is experiencing rapid growth, which may offset the slowdown in the electric passenger vehicle market [1][2][3] - In October 2025, the sales of electric heavy-duty trucks in China surged by 144% year-on-year, with a penetration rate reaching approximately 29% [1][3] - The penetration rate for electric heavy-duty trucks is expected to rise to 35% by 2026, indicating a strong growth trajectory [6] Group 2 - The electric light-duty truck (eLDT) market is also on the rise, with a year-to-date sales increase of 92% and a 40% year-on-year growth in October 2025 [7] - The penetration rate for electric light-duty trucks is projected to increase from 10% in 2025 to 38% by 2027, with corresponding battery demand expected to grow from 30 GWh to 150 GWh [7] Group 3 - CATL is positioned to benefit significantly from the electrification of trucks, with expectations of a 23% year-on-year growth in its electric vehicle battery business by 2026 [10] - The acceleration of truck electrification is anticipated to mitigate the negative impacts of slowing growth in the electric passenger vehicle sector for CATL [10] - Morgan Stanley maintains an "overweight" rating for CATL, with a target price of 490.00 RMB, suggesting a potential upside of 31% from the current stock price [10]