JP MORGAN CHASE(US:JPM) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-11-27 08:23Core Viewpoint - JPMorgan predicts a weakening of the US dollar by mid-2026 due to relaxed monetary and fiscal policies, but warns that accelerated market bets on future rate hikes could challenge this outlook [1][2] Group 1: Dollar Forecast - JPMorgan's currency strategists expect the dollar to decline by approximately 3% by mid-2026, stabilizing thereafter, particularly against high-yield currencies like the Australian dollar and Norwegian krone [1] - The bank's negative outlook on the dollar was established in March and has remained consistent since then [1] Group 2: Economic Factors - Anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, increased government spending, and concerns over government intervention in Fed decisions are supporting JPMorgan's views [2] - Despite recent rate cuts, US interest rates remain higher than those of many global central banks, attracting global investors to the US and limiting the appeal of diversifying investments outside the US [3] Group 3: Employment and Growth Risks - A rebound in the US job market or growth expectations could lead traders to dismiss the possibility of rate cuts next year and increase bets on potential rate hikes [3] - JPMorgan's analysts note that if US economic growth improves enough to end current easing policies, the bank would shift to a bullish outlook on the dollar [3] Group 4: Market Sentiment - The futures market indicates that the current rate cycle will bottom out by early 2027, with JPMorgan's economic team forecasting a rate hike of about 50 basis points in the first half of 2027 [3] - A significant portion of market participants, including nearly two-thirds of US Treasury secretaries and CFOs surveyed, predict that the Fed will raise rates next year [3]