突发！摩根大通一周内第二次改口：押注12月美联储会降息！发生了什么？

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has unexpectedly revised its prediction, now forecasting a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, following a previous stance against such a move just a week prior [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut has surged from 25% to 84.7% within a week, driven by a lack of key economic data and statements from influential figures like New York Fed President Williams [3][4]. - The abrupt change in sentiment among major financial institutions, including Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, reflects a collective shift in expectations regarding the Fed's monetary policy [4][6]. Group 2: Reasons Behind Morgan Stanley's Shift - Morgan Stanley's decision to bet on a rate cut is influenced by Williams' comments, which are interpreted as signals from the Fed's leadership indicating a willingness to lower rates without jeopardizing inflation targets [6][12]. - Analysis of the U.S. job market reveals underlying weaknesses, with rising unemployment rates and a lack of substantial job growth outside certain sectors, suggesting a cooling economy that supports the case for a rate cut [7][12]. - The collective action among Wall Street firms to anticipate a rate cut is driven by a desire to avoid being left behind in the event of a policy shift, further reinforcing the rising expectations for a December cut [8][12]. Group 3: Risks and Uncertainties - Despite the prevailing sentiment for a rate cut, internal disagreements within the Federal Reserve could pose risks, as some members, like Boston Fed President Collins, oppose immediate cuts, indicating a close vote situation [10][12]. - The delayed release of critical economic data, including CPI and non-farm payrolls, could lead to a reversal in rate cut expectations if the data indicates stronger inflation or employment figures [10][12].