大摩建议维持新兴市场本币债券的多头头寸 预计到2026年中回报率将达8%左右

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley recommends maintaining long positions in emerging market local currency bonds, expecting a return of around 8% by mid-2026 due to a potential slowdown in the US economy and further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1]. Group 1: Emerging Market Bonds - The firm anticipates a "high single-digit" increase in emerging market dollar bonds over the next 12 months [1]. - James Lord, head of emerging market FX strategy at Morgan Stanley, stated that Fed rate cuts will exert downward pressure on the dollar, which will help lower US Treasury yields and create a favorable environment for emerging markets [1].