SCS(SH:601555) Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-11-28 01:36Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the copper market is expected to experience price fluctuations in 2025, with a projected average price of $9,704 per ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6%, and is anticipated to break historical highs by the end of the year [2] - The demand for refined copper is expected to remain robust, with China accounting for 58% of global consumption in 2024, and a steady growth rate of 2% CAGR from 2016 to 2024 [3][4] - The supply side is characterized by a gradual increase in C1 costs and a tight mining situation, with copper concentrate production growth lagging behind refined copper production growth [4] Group 2 - In 2026, the copper market is projected to be in a tight balance, with a supply gap of 50,000 tons, and both supply and demand expected to grow by 3% year-on-year [5] - The company anticipates that the copper price will continue to rise, reaching a central price of $10,500 per ton in 2026 due to tightening supply and sustained demand [5] - The report highlights that the sentiment in the market may react more strongly than the actual fundamental performance, indicating a potential disconnect between market perception and reality [3]