Core Viewpoint - The construction agency industry is experiencing a rational return to competition, presenting incremental opportunities despite a decline in new contract signing scale for 2024. The market structure is stabilizing, with leading companies expanding their market share and focusing on risk management and profitability [1] Industry Summary - The construction agency sector is facing intensified competition, a slowdown in land acquisition and construction commencement, and adjustments in storage plans, leading to a decrease in new contract signing scale for 2024. However, by the first half of 2025, no new large-scale entrants are expected, which will stabilize the industry landscape [1] - Urban renewal, the expansion of the "white list," and the promotion of "good housing" policies are expected to drive structural incremental opportunities in the industry. Although single-party construction fees are currently declining, leading companies maintain a market share exceeding 20%, with gross and net profit margins around 40% and 20%, respectively [1] Company Summary - The company is currently experiencing a phase of profit pressure due to the lagging effects of the real estate downturn. However, as competition returns to focus on product quality and operational efficiency, the company is expected to leverage its comprehensive competitive advantages to drive steady profit recovery [1] - As of the first half of 2025, the company has a total construction area of 126.5 million square meters in hand, with new construction fees and building areas growing at double-digit rates year-on-year [1] - The company has improved cash reserves and operating cash flow, with increasing per capita output value and a high dividend payout ratio. It plans to implement a mid-term dividend for the first time in 2025, with a dividend yield significantly higher than mainstream commercial management and property companies [1] Investment Outlook - The company's earnings may face temporary pressure in 2025, leading to a slight downward adjustment of the 2025 EPS forecast to 0.28 yuan (previously 0.32 yuan). However, as a leading construction agency, the company possesses comprehensive competitive advantages and is expected to gradually emerge from this earnings trough. The 2026 EPS forecast remains at 0.31 yuan, while the 2027 EPS forecast is raised to 0.34 yuan (previously 0.31 yuan). The current stock price corresponds to PE ratios of 10.0x, 9.1x, and 8.3x for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, indicating continued dividend potential under a light asset model [2]
绿城管理控股(9979.HK)：行业竞争趋于理性 经营筑底分红较高