JP MORGAN CHASE(US:JPM) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-11-28 09:09Economic Growth and Inflation - The US economy is expected to maintain a moderate growth rate with a projected real GDP growth of 1.8% in 2026, consistent with 2025 [2] - Core PCE inflation is anticipated to decrease to 2.7%, still above the Federal Reserve's target [2] - The labor market may soften, with the unemployment rate potentially rising to 4.5% by year-end, while average monthly job growth is expected to be below the historical average of 50,000 [2] Trade Policy - Tariff policies remain uncertain, with a potential Supreme Court ruling on the legality of IEEPA tariffs being a key variable; a reversal could lead to significant tax refunds of $130 to $140 billion [3] - Import price stickiness is expected to persist, with tariff revenue growth narrowing to approximately 3% year-on-year [3] - Trade agreements, including renegotiations of the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement and the implementation of US-Japan and US-Korea trade agreements, are projected to have structural impacts, although export growth is expected to slightly rebound to 0.5% [3] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - Fiscal stimulus is expected to diminish, with the Inflation Reduction Act's R&D tax credit effects becoming apparent in 2026; however, overall fiscal deficits will remain high due to tax cuts and expanded social security spending [4] - The Federal Reserve is projected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in December and January, targeting a federal funds rate range of 3.25% to 3.5%, maintaining this until early 2027 [4] - Potential early rate cuts may occur if the labor market deteriorates unexpectedly, while a rebound in inflation could lead to rate hikes in 2027 [4] Structural Challenges - Productivity growth is limited, with AI technology contributing to a 1.5% increase in non-farm productivity, but insufficient industry penetration and efficiency losses from supply chain restructuring offset these gains [5] - The real estate market is sluggish, with high mortgage rates suppressing demand; new housing starts are expected to decline to 1.3 million units annually, and construction investment is projected to shrink by 1.6%, dragging GDP growth down by 0.2 percentage points [5] - Financial stability risks are rising, with increased market volatility due to cryptocurrency regulatory uncertainties and prolonged credit tightening in the banking sector, leading to upward pressure on commercial real estate default rates [5] Social and Demographic Factors - Population aging is intensifying, with labor force growth slowing to 0.7% in 2026 and a 15% reduction in legal immigration due to policy changes, resulting in structural labor shortages and wage rigidity [6] - Income inequality is worsening, with the top 1% of high-income households holding 35% of financial assets, while the wealth effect on consumption is diminishing; credit card default rates among low-income groups are rising, indicating significant consumer confidence disparities [6] Industry and Market Trends - Investment in technology is becoming polarized, with semiconductor equipment investment growth slowing to 5%, while spending on generative AI-related hardware continues to grow at double-digit rates; software and cloud computing investments are expected to account for 35% of IT spending [7] - The energy transition is accelerating, driven by tax credits from the Inflation Reduction Act, leading to a 20% increase in renewable energy investments, over 15% penetration of electric vehicles, and a 35% year-on-year growth in charging station investments [7]