KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-11-28 21:45Core Viewpoint - The price of Moutai has significantly declined, with wholesale prices dropping below 1700 yuan, leading to substantial losses for distributors and raising concerns about the future of the high-end liquor market [1][3][5] Price Trends - Moutai's price has seen a dramatic decrease from 3260 yuan in January 2022 to 1680 yuan by November 2025, marking a cumulative decline of over 48% [3][5] - The price drop is attributed to a combination of excess inventory, policy changes, and shifting consumer trends [5][7] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The increase in Moutai's production capacity, from 39,300 tons in 2016 to 56,300 tons in 2024, has contributed to the downward pressure on prices [7] - The demand for high-end liquor has shrunk, particularly due to the "ban on alcohol" policy affecting government-related consumption, which has dropped to less than 1% of total sales [9][11] Market Impact - The decline in Moutai's price has triggered a ripple effect across the high-end liquor market, with other brands like Wuliangye and Guojiao also experiencing price drops [11][15] - The overall white liquor industry is facing challenges, with production declining for nine consecutive quarters and a 23% reduction in actual consumption [11][15] Company Response and Future Outlook - Moutai is attempting to stabilize prices through supply control and has recently appointed a new chairman, indicating a response to the current market pressures [17][19] - The long-term stability of Moutai's prices will depend on the effective management of excess inventory and the ability to attract younger consumers [19][21] Consumer Behavior Shift - Younger consumers show a preference for lower-alcohol beverages, with only 9% of them consuming white liquor, indicating a potential long-term challenge for Moutai [9][11] - The shift in consumer preferences necessitates Moutai to innovate and adapt its product offerings to appeal to younger demographics [21][23]