盐津铺子的“增长神话”，是零食行业的“幸存者偏差”吗？

Core Insights - The snack industry is experiencing intense competition, with companies like Salted Fish and others facing challenges in profitability despite revenue growth [1][3] - Salted Fish has shown resilience, reporting a revenue of 44.27 billion yuan and a net profit of 6.05 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, marking year-on-year growth of 14.67% and 22.63% respectively [1][3] - The company is expanding its market presence by targeting high-end channels and investing in a production base in Thailand [3][19] Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, Salted Fish achieved a revenue of 14.9 billion yuan, a 6.1% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 2.3 billion yuan, reflecting a significant 33.6% growth [1][3] - The company's gross margin improved by 1.0 percentage points to 31.6%, driven by higher sales of high-margin konjac products and optimization of product structure [3][5] - The first three quarters of 2025 saw a net profit margin of 13.66%, with a cash flow from operating activities of 619 million yuan, indicating a decline of 29.79% [2][8] Market Position and Strategy - Salted Fish has successfully captured market share in the high-end snack segment while also expanding its distribution channels, covering over 40,000 retail outlets [5][15] - The company relies heavily on its konjac products, which accounted for 26.9% of total revenue in the first half of 2025, with a staggering year-on-year growth of 155.10% [10][12] - Despite its successes, Salted Fish faces challenges due to over-reliance on a single product category and the potential for market saturation [12][13] Industry Challenges - The snack industry is shifting from a focus on channel expansion to a need for innovation and efficiency, with many companies struggling to adapt [9][16] - Salted Fish's growth strategy has not addressed fundamental industry issues such as product homogeneity and weak innovation capabilities [9][17] - The competitive landscape is intensifying, with companies needing to enhance supply chain efficiency and product differentiation to maintain market relevance [16][20] Future Outlook - The snack market is projected to exceed 3.8 trillion yuan in 2025, but the underlying challenges of low entry barriers and intense competition remain [20][21] - Salted Fish's current growth model, which capitalizes on health trends and channel advantages, may not be sustainable in the long term without significant innovation and market adaptation [20][21] - The company must transition from being a beneficiary of market trends to a creator of lasting value to avoid potential declines in growth [21]