VVFB(SH:600300) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-11-30 09:29Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant decline of a state-owned liquor company, VIVI Co., whose stock price has plummeted from 15 yuan in 2015 to around 3 yuan in 2025, amidst a challenging market environment for the liquor industry, while highlighting the recent investment by renowned investor Zhang Sufen as a potential indicator of a turnaround opportunity [1][3]. Industry Overview - The liquor market in 2025 is characterized by a stark contrast, with leading brands like Moutai and Wuliangye managing to sustain themselves through stable dividends, while smaller liquor companies face severe downturns, with a reported 5.9% decline in revenue for 20 A-share liquor companies in the first three quarters of 2025, and a staggering 18.47% drop in the third quarter alone [1][3]. - The overall liquor industry is experiencing a capacity utilization rate of less than 60% in 2025, leading to increased pressure on smaller companies as they struggle against dominant brands [4]. Company Performance - VIVI Co. has seen its stock price drop significantly, with a 23% decline from the beginning of 2025, and a total market value loss exceeding 10 billion yuan over the past decade [3][4]. - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 2.388 billion yuan, reflecting an 11.2% year-on-year decrease, and a stark contrast to its peak revenue of 5 billion yuan in 2013 [3][4]. - VIVI's liquor business is underperforming, with a mere 2.1% revenue growth in the first three quarters of 2025, significantly lagging behind the regional average of 6.2% [3]. Investment Insights - Zhang Sufen's recent acquisition of 12.33 million shares positions her as the third-largest shareholder in VIVI Co., which she views as a strategic investment based on the company's low valuation and state-owned background [5]. - The company's price-to-earnings ratio stands at 14, notably lower than the liquor sector average of 19.52, making it an attractive investment opportunity for those seeking undervalued stocks [5]. Policy Environment - The 2025 policy landscape presents potential benefits for VIVI Co., including local state-owned enterprise reforms aimed at improving operational efficiency, which could lead to asset revaluation and positive market sentiment [6]. - The recent recognition of liquor as a "historical classic industry" by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology may provide VIVI Co. with additional support and funding opportunities [6]. - The removal of restrictions on mergers and acquisitions in the liquor sector by the China Securities Regulatory Commission could facilitate VIVI Co.'s efforts to optimize its liquor business and attract quality assets [6].