Goldman Sachs(US:GS) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-12-01 00:46Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs predicts a high probability (over 85%) of a 25 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve during the December 9-10 meeting, based on solid economic indicators [3][4]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. job market is showing signs of weakness, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.4%, the highest level since October 2021 [4]. - The unemployment rate for college graduates aged 20-24 has surged to 8.5%, significantly impacting the labor income of this demographic, which constitutes over half of the U.S. labor income [4]. - There are increasing warnings of layoffs from companies, indicating a cooling labor demand, which is a critical metric for the Federal Reserve [4]. Federal Reserve Signals - Federal Reserve officials, including New York Fed President Williams and San Francisco Fed President Daly, have indicated that there is room for further policy adjustments, suggesting a cautious approach to tightening [4]. Long-term Investment Strategy - Goldman Sachs forecasts that the federal funds rate will decrease to between 3% and 3.25% by mid-2026, with additional small cuts expected in March and June of the following year [4]. - The recommended trading strategy includes shorting U.S. 10-year Treasury bonds in early 2026, anticipating growth from subsequent fiscal stimulus [4]. Market Consensus - The current market consensus is strong, indicating that the upcoming interest rate cut is almost certain, emphasizing the importance of understanding the economic logic behind the cut rather than focusing on the timing [5].