Alphabet(US:GOOG) Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-12-01 01:15Market Overview - The Nasdaq Composite Index ended a seven-month streak of gains, while the S&P 500 Index is just 1% away from its all-time high [1] - Despite a strong performance in the last five trading days of November, the overall month was marked by significant volatility, with concerns over a potential AI bubble impacting major companies [1] - Notable stock movements included a 13% drop in Meta, an 8% decline in Nvidia, and a nearly 30% fall in Oracle, while Google saw a 20% increase following strong earnings and positive news regarding AI chip deals [1] Federal Reserve Focus - Investors are closely watching the possibility of a 25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, with an 86.9% probability currently estimated [2] - The Fed has entered a mandatory quiet period ahead of its meeting scheduled for December 9-10 [2] - The economic calendar is expected to normalize following a government shutdown, with upcoming reports on manufacturing, services, and private sector employment [2] December Market Sentiment - Traditionally, December is a strong month for the stock market, but this year may deviate from that trend due to various economic uncertainties [3][4] - Analysts suggest that volatility may be a more significant theme this December, with increased bearish sentiment in the options market [5] Long-term Market Outlook - Despite short-term volatility, long-term projections remain optimistic, with expectations for the S&P 500 to reach between 7,500 and 8,000 points by the end of 2026, driven by resilient economic conditions and AI advancements [9][10] - The S&P 500 companies reported a 13.4% profit growth in Q3, with large tech firms being the primary drivers of this expansion [9] - Analysts emphasize the importance of rebalancing portfolios amid increasing uncertainty and volatility [9][11]