市场存在误解？大摩：以往内存涨价周期，小米利润率“实际上有所改善”

Core Insights - Morgan Stanley's latest research report challenges the prevailing belief that rising memory prices will negatively impact smartphone manufacturers' profit margins, suggesting instead that it may present an opportunity for margin improvement for terminal manufacturers [1][2]. Group 1: Historical Analysis - Historical data analysis reveals that during the price increase cycles of 2016-17, 2019-21, and 2022-23, Xiaomi's smartphone gross margins actually improved despite rising DRAM prices [2][5]. - This finding indicates that the market may underestimate smartphone manufacturers' ability to pass on costs and Xiaomi's resilience in profitability [1][2]. Group 2: Cost Transfer Mechanism - The effectiveness of the cost transfer mechanism is a key factor, as smartphone manufacturers can restore gross margin levels during price cycles by raising product prices, thereby passing cost pressures onto consumers [5]. - There exists a "time-lag benefit," where after a period of cost inflation leading to price increases, a reversal in inflation can create a favorable scenario of "high prices, low costs," triggering margin recovery [5]. Group 3: Product Strategy - Xiaomi's ongoing high-end product strategy serves as a long-term positive driver for margin improvement, allowing the company to move away from a reliance on low-end models and enhancing its defensive capabilities during cost fluctuation cycles [5]. Group 4: Future Scenarios - Morgan Stanley differentiates future scenarios based on the memory cost cycle: if a super-cycle occurs with prolonged price increases, smartphone gross margins may face sustained downward pressure, while a quick reversal could lead to rapid margin recovery [6]. - Historical experience suggests that once DRAM prices peak and decline, manufacturers like Xiaomi may see margin improvements that exceed market expectations [6].