茅台“不香了”？创近11年来的历史增速新低

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant decline in Moutai's performance, highlighting the challenges faced by the company due to reduced demand, channel inefficiencies, and falling prices, while also exploring its attempts at transformation and adaptation to the changing market landscape [1][2][20]. Group 1: Performance Decline - Moutai's sales prices have decreased, with offline stores selling at 1590 yuan and online platforms offering prices as low as 1499 yuan during the recent Double Eleven shopping festival [1][2]. - The wholesale price of Moutai has dropped from 2220 yuan at the beginning of the year to 1565 yuan recently, marking a decline of over 29%, the largest drop since its listing [10][20]. - Moutai's revenue growth has slowed significantly, with a year-on-year increase of only 0.56% and net profit growth of 0.48%, the lowest in nearly 11 years [1][20]. Group 2: Market Pressures - The demand for high-end liquor has decreased, with a reported 30% drop in business consumption year-on-year, leading to a significant contraction in Moutai's core consumer scenarios [5][20]. - The average inventory turnover days in the liquor industry reached 900 days in the first half of 2025, an increase of 10% compared to the previous year, indicating severe inventory issues for distributors [8][10]. - The number of liquor stores in China is shrinking at a rate of 17%-22%, with some areas experiencing closure rates exceeding 30% [5][20]. Group 3: Transformation Efforts - Moutai is shifting its strategy to focus on direct consumer engagement, moving from a quota-based distribution to a sales-based distribution model, which has improved inventory pressure [13][20]. - The company is targeting younger consumers by introducing smaller bottle sizes and collaborating with brands to create new products, with 45% of its customer base now under 45 years old [14][20]. - Moutai is also enhancing its service offerings, transitioning from merely selling liquor to providing lifestyle experiences, which has resulted in a 35% higher repurchase rate in experience stores compared to regular outlets [17][20]. Group 4: Market Sentiment - There are mixed opinions in the market regarding Moutai's ability to recover, with 80% of brokers maintaining a "buy" rating and an average target price of 2100 yuan, indicating a potential 27% upside from the current price of 1650 yuan [20][21]. - Despite the positive outlook from some analysts, concerns remain about the effectiveness of Moutai's transformation efforts, as new service-driven revenue streams have not yet achieved significant scale [21][23]. - Moutai's recent cash dividend proposal of approximately 300.01 billion yuan aims to bolster investor confidence amid ongoing challenges [20][21].