巴克莱：预计美联储本月降息 前瞻性指引倾向于暂时按兵不动

Core Viewpoint - Barclays economists indicate a high likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve during the meeting on December 9-10, with market pricing showing over 80% probability for this cut [1] Group 1: Rate Cut Expectations - The expectation is that Jerome Powell will support the rate cut, joining a group that includes Waller, Bowman, Williams, Jefferson, Cook, and Barr [1] - There is anticipated internal dissent, with at least two hawkish votes against from Schmid and Musalem, and one potential dissenting vote from Goolsbee or Collins [1] - Milan may also vote against the cut, advocating for a larger reduction [1] Group 2: Future Guidance - Barclays expects the Fed's statement and Powell's press conference to have a slightly hawkish tone, suggesting a likely pause in January unless labor market conditions worsen beyond expectations [1]