大行评级丨海通国际：首予华住集团H股目标价41港元及“优于大市”评级

Core Viewpoint - Haitong International initiates coverage on Huazhu Group with an "Outperform" rating and a target price of HKD 41, highlighting the company's leadership in the Chinese hotel chain market and its effective multi-brand strategy [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Huazhu Group is the market leader in the Chinese hotel chain sector, benefiting from an increase in the chain rate of the hotel industry, with its room night volume ranking in the top tier [1] - The company employs a multi-brand matrix and membership system, which, combined with efficient team execution, has led to a continuous increase in market share [1] - The proportion of mid-range hotels is significant, providing resilience, while the increase in the proportion of mid-to-high-end hotels further supports the growth in overall revenue per available room (RevPAR) [1] Group 2: Business Model and Strategy - The company is transitioning towards a high-margin, asset-light franchise model, closing low-quality stores, which is expected to lead to sustained profit margin improvements [1] - The forecast for the fourth quarter includes a net addition of 234 hotels, with a total hotel count projected to reach 12,814 by 2025 [1] - The company is committed to its long-term goal of 20,000 stores by 2030, aiming for a 15% market share [1] Group 3: Financial Projections - Haitong International predicts adjusted EBITDA for the next two years to be RMB 7.94 billion and RMB 9.13 billion, respectively, with adjusted EBITDA margins expected to increase by 5 percentage points and 3 percentage points year-on-year [1]