Bank of America(US:BAC) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-12-02 06:08Core Viewpoint - Bank of America predicts a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, aligning with market expectations of an 88% probability for such a move, influenced by a weak labor market and recent comments from policymakers [2][3][4] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The labor market is showing signs of weakness, with private sector hiring below expectations, prompting the updated prediction for a rate cut [2] - The CME FedWatch tool indicates an 88% probability of a 25 basis point cut at the upcoming meeting, with only 12% of investors expecting rates to remain unchanged [2] Group 2: Future Rate Predictions - Analysts expect the Federal Reserve to implement a "hawkish cut," lowering rates while retaining the option to adjust policies in response to inflation in future meetings [3] - Despite the December cut prediction, analysts foresee only two additional 25 basis point cuts in June and July of the following year [3] Group 3: Leadership Changes - There is speculation that Jerome Powell may be replaced as Fed Chair, with potential successors like Kevin Hassett, who is known for advocating aggressive rate cuts [4] - The anticipated leadership change is expected to influence future rate decisions, with predictions of further cuts by 2026 not based on economic conditions but rather on expected changes in leadership [3]