企业“上调指引”激增，华尔街正沉浸在完美的复苏叙事中

Core Insights - Corporate executives are expressing the strongest optimism in recent years, raising earnings guidance and reducing the use of cautious language [1][2] - Morgan Stanley predicts significant earnings growth for companies in 2026, with an expected 17% increase in earnings per share (EPS) [1] Group 1: Corporate Sentiment - The frequency of mentioning "raise guidance" in earnings calls has surged, while "cautious" mentions have significantly decreased, indicating a return of confidence among corporate management [2] - The earnings revision breadth for the S&P 500 has shown positive upward movement, reflecting a broader recovery in earnings expectations [2] Group 2: Financial Improvements - The "Inflation Reduction Act" allows for the immediate expensing of R&D costs and accelerated depreciation, which is expected to lower corporate cash tax rates starting in Q3 2025 and continue into 2026 [5] - Companies have successfully mitigated tariff impacts through various strategies, including pricing power and supply chain diversification, with mentions of "tariffs" in earnings calls peaking and then declining [5] Group 3: AI and Productivity - Artificial intelligence is transitioning from a concept to a productivity tool, with mentions of "AI," "efficiency," and "productivity" reaching new highs in earnings calls [9] - AI applications are driving sales growth and improving profit margins, with predictions that AI-driven efficiency gains will contribute approximately 30 basis points to the net profit margin of the S&P 500 in 2026 [9] Group 4: Economic Environment - The macroeconomic environment is stabilizing, with companies successfully managing cost and profit margin pressures, and discussions around inflation remaining steady [13] - The labor market is showing a "net neutral" trend, with balanced mentions of hiring and layoffs, and concerns about rising labor costs have diminished [15]