IBM(US:IBM) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-12-02 11:24Core Insights - The CEO of IBM, Arvind Krishna, expressed concerns about the economic feasibility of large capital expenditures in data center construction and operation, particularly in the context of pursuing Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) [1][3] - Krishna estimated that a 1 GW data center requires approximately $80 billion in investment, and if a single company plans to build 20 to 30 GW data centers, the capital expenditure could reach around $1.5 trillion [3] - The total global commitment related to AGI construction could approach 100 GW, corresponding to an investment of about $800 billion, with interest costs necessitating around $80 billion in profits to cover [3] Industry Context - Krishna indicated that the depreciation cycle of AI chips is a critical factor, as current data center chips typically need to be depreciated over five years, complicating long-term returns [3] - In light of the growing discussions around AGI, Krishna assessed the probability of achieving AGI through existing technological paths as between 0% and 1% [4] - Despite skepticism regarding the rapid development of AGI, Krishna acknowledged the value of current AI tools in enhancing enterprise productivity, suggesting that these technologies could unlock "trillions of dollars" in efficiency gains [4] - He proposed that future advancements in AGI may require a combination of hard knowledge systems and large models, although he remains cautious about the likelihood of success [4]