Goldman Sachs(US:GS) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-12-02 14:31Group 1 - The mainstream media discusses the real estate market entering a new "development" phase, focusing on inventory optimization and the vision of building a "People's City" by 2035, which is seen as a grand narrative [2] - Goldman Sachs has been pessimistic about the Chinese real estate market, consistently discussing when it will hit bottom and the extent of the next decline [2][3] - Goldman Sachs predicts that the real estate market may not hit bottom until 2027, indicating a relatively optimistic view, while also suggesting a more pessimistic scenario where a second round of decline could occur in the next three years [3] Group 2 - Recent core data from October suggests that a second round of decline is possible, leading Goldman Sachs to revise its predictions, recommending an increase of 8 trillion yuan in liquidity support by the end of the year to potentially hit bottom [5] - Without the 8 trillion yuan liquidity support, overall real estate prices could continue to decline by 20-25%, indicating the onset of a "second round of decline" [5] - The financial market is experiencing a divergence, with the stock market continuing to rise while the real estate market declines, indicating a preference for speculative investments over tangible assets [6] Group 3 - The real estate market lacks recovery support due to factors such as aging population, declining birth rates, macroeconomic transformation, debt burdens, and high inventory levels [7] - The Producer Price Index has been declining for 36 consecutive months, suggesting that without macroeconomic recovery, the real estate market is unlikely to rebound [7] - Households are advised to reduce the proportion of real estate in their asset allocation to below 40%, even if signals of hitting bottom are emerging, as hitting bottom does not equate to a reversal [7]