国盛证券熊园：明年A股的配置价值将提升

Core Insights - The speech by Dr. Xiong Yuan highlighted the macroeconomic trends in China for 2025, predicting a "high first, low second" growth pattern with a projected GDP growth of 5.2% in the first three quarters and a 4.4% growth in the fourth quarter to meet the annual target of "keeping above 5%" [1][2] - The real estate market is currently in a transitional phase, requiring new drivers and models for economic transformation [1] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand, improving people's livelihoods, and integrating consumption and investment [1] Economic Outlook for 2026 - Six key variables influencing the economic trajectory for 2026 include: resilience of exports, scale of fixed asset investment, consumption scale, PPI and GDP deflator trends, policy implementation pace, and Sino-U.S. trade relations [2] - The policy tone for 2026 is expected to be positive, with predictions of 1-2 instances of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions, alongside a fiscal deficit similar to that of 2025 [2] - A-share assets are viewed positively due to economic resilience, policy flexibility, and competitive industries, while the bond market is expected to experience fluctuations with 10-year government bond yields ranging from 1.5% to 1.9% [2] - The economic growth for 2026 is anticipated to remain around 5%, providing ample investment opportunities across various asset classes [2]