速腾聚创(2498.HK)：4Q25有望实现盈利 预计明年销量放量增长

Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to achieve profitability in Q4 2025, with projected sales growth in the coming year, despite a revenue decline in Q3 2025 [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Q3 2025 revenue was 407 million yuan, showing a year-on-year stability but a quarter-on-quarter decline of 10.6% [1] - The revenue contributions from ADAS and robotics were 245 million yuan (down 25.7% year-on-year and down 9.8% quarter-on-quarter) and 142 million yuan (up 157.8% year-on-year and down 3.3% quarter-on-quarter) respectively [1] - The total sales volume of laser radars reached 186,000 units, with a year-on-year increase of 34.0% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 17.3% [1] - The average price of ADAS radars decreased to approximately 1,600 yuan, down from about 2,200 yuan in Q2 [1] - The overall gross margin was 23.9%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.4 percentage points but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 3.8 percentage points [1] - The adjusted net loss attributable to shareholders was 65 million yuan, representing a year-on-year reduction in loss of 7% [1] Group 2: Market Potential and Product Development - The EM series products have gained market recognition, with 56 models receiving approvals [2] - The company has established a strong technical barrier through its self-developed SPAD-SoC receiving chips and VCSEL emitting chips, which are expected to drive faster growth in ADAS radar sales by 2026 [2] - The Robotaxi market is projected to require 300,000 to 500,000 laser radars if the fleet size increases from approximately 4,000 to 100,000 vehicles over the next 3 to 5 years [2] Group 3: Investment Rating and Projections - The company maintains a "Buy" rating, with a target price set at 41.40 HKD [3] - Radar sales forecasts for 2026 and 2027 have been significantly raised to 2.3 million and 3.1 million units respectively, although average prices are expected to decline slightly due to scale [3] - The robotics segment is anticipated to surpass ADAS in radar sales, becoming the primary growth driver and improving overall gross margins [3]