SF Holding(SZ:002352) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-12-03 07:03Core Insights - The logistics and warehousing sector in China is entering a critical phase of "refined operation and value reconstruction" by 2025, focusing on sustainable development and efficiency rather than mere scale expansion [2] - The market is experiencing "structural differentiation," with varying performance across regions, necessitating a comprehensive evaluation of outstanding enterprises and projects [2] Market Overview: Supply and Demand Balance - The overall vacancy rate for high-standard warehouses increased by 0.5 percentage points to 17.8% in Q2 2025, with average rent slightly declining by 3.6% to 29.7 CNY/m²·month [3] - Some cities are witnessing growth in leasing demand due to traditional e-commerce festivals and cross-border e-commerce expansion, leading to slight rent increases and decreased vacancy rates [3] - Regions with weaker industrial foundations are facing significant downward pressure on rental rates and occupancy [3] Regional Performance - The South China region maintains a low vacancy rate of 10.6% and high rent of 37.7 CNY/m²·month, supported by strong manufacturing and cross-border logistics demand [6] - The Central and Southwest regions show decreasing vacancy rates, with Central China at 11.6% and Southwest at 12.7%, while average rents are 25.4 CNY/m²·month and 21.7 CNY/m²·month, respectively [6] - The North and East China regions face challenges with high vacancy rates of 21.4% and 21.6%, respectively, and declining rents [7] Demand Structure Changes - The logistics market is experiencing a slowdown in demand growth, with rising vacancy rates and a dynamic adjustment phase in supply and demand relationships [8] - By Q3 2025, the non-bonded high-standard warehouse market inventory reached 17.6 million square meters, with the Yangtze River Delta region dominating at 46% [8][10] - The demand structure is shifting, with cross-border e-commerce and traditional platforms maintaining high activity levels, but immediate retail e-commerce showing limited direct demand for high-standard warehouses [10] Future Supply Outlook - An estimated 18 million square meters of new non-bonded high-standard warehouse supply is expected from Q4 2025 to 2026, with significant variations across city clusters [12] - The average effective rent for high-standard warehouses is anticipated to face downward pressure due to new supply, although the decline may narrow as supply-demand relationships adjust [12] Industry Trends - The logistics industry is gradually moving towards high-quality development, with core indices showing a recovery trend despite fluctuations [13][15] - The logistics industry is experiencing a shift from "price wars" to "value wars," supported by various policies aimed at curbing unhealthy competition [17][18] Investment and Financing - The logistics sector is witnessing active investment, with a total of 748 billion CNY raised through 33 financing events from January to October 2025 [37] - The financing structure is evolving from single equity financing to a diversified system including equity, debt, and asset-backed securities (ABS) [38][39] - Significant transactions in the warehousing and logistics asset sector are enhancing resource allocation efficiency and supporting global expansion [41]