Goldman Sachs(US:GS) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-12-03 23:11Core Insights - The article discusses the ongoing decline in China's real estate market, particularly in first-tier cities, highlighting a potential further drop in property prices by nearly 20% [3][4][10] Group 1: Market Conditions - Property prices in Shenzhen have decreased by approximately 30% from their peak as of November this year [3] - A report from Zhongyou Securities indicates that national property prices have fallen by about 40% since their peak, with first-tier cities experiencing declines between 20% and 30% [10] - The inventory of new residential properties has surged, with Beijing's new housing inventory reaching 123,000 units and Shanghai's at 138,000 units, marking a five-year high [7] Group 2: Consumer Sentiment - A survey by the People's Bank of China shows that only 16.5% of urban residents are willing to buy a home in the next three months, a decrease of 2.1 percentage points from the previous year [7] - The shift in consumer behavior from "buying on the rise" to "not buying as prices fall" reflects a significant loss of confidence in the market [7] Group 3: Future Predictions - The annual demand for new residential properties in urban China is projected to drop to around 5 million units, a stark contrast to the 20 million units during the peak in 2017 [8] - The article suggests that the remaining potential decline in property prices aligns with predictions from both Goldman Sachs and internal bank assessments, indicating a consensus on the market's downward trajectory [10][12]