Goldman Sachs(US:GS) Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2025-12-04 00:44Group 1: Bullish Factors - The bullish sentiment for the U.S. stock market in 2026 is primarily driven by the AI boom and significant stimulus measures, with the "Tech Seven" expected to contribute approximately $600 billion in capital expenditures to the U.S. economy [1] - Additional supportive factors for the bullish outlook include the end of quantitative tightening (QT), ongoing fiscal deficits, $1.2 trillion in stock buyback authorizations for 2026, retail investors' continued "buying the dip" behavior, and potential regulatory relaxations in the banking sector [2] Group 2: Bearish Risks - Concerns are growing regarding high stock valuations, which leave little room for error, and the market's increasing dependence on the AI theme, leading to one of the narrowest market breadths in the past two decades [1][3] - The emergence of a "K-shaped economy" is highlighted, where economic recovery is uneven, with financial stress among certain consumer groups and rising default rates among low-income households [3] - The phenomenon of "AI circularity" indicates that the prosperity in the AI sector is increasingly financed through leverage, raising concerns about sustainability [3] Group 3: Market Psychology - A unique risk identified is the lack of "muscle memory" among traders, as the unprecedented bull market over the past 15 years has led many to only experience rising markets, fostering a belief in perpetual support and the effectiveness of "buying the dip" strategies [4] - The potential for a significant market adjustment could favor more experienced investors who have previously navigated bear market cycles [4]