大摩：英伟达还能再涨38%

Core Viewpoint - Recent weeks have seen a significant reshuffling risk in the hot AI trading space, with Google emerging as a strong competitor against Nvidia, yet Morgan Stanley reassures investors that there is little reason for concern regarding Nvidia's dominance in AI [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Nvidia's stock price fell by 9% last month, and even a strong third-quarter earnings report failed to boost the AI sector [1]. - Notable investors, including SoftBank's Masayoshi Son and billionaire Peter Thiel, have liquidated their positions in Nvidia, raising concerns about a potential bubble [1]. - Morgan Stanley analyst Joseph Moore countered the pessimistic outlook by raising Nvidia's target price from $235 to $250, indicating a potential upside of approximately 38% from current levels [1]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Concerns about Nvidia's market share, particularly in Asia, are considered exaggerated by Morgan Stanley [3]. - Speculation regarding Nvidia's dominance has been ongoing since the rise of ChatGPT in 2022, with investors questioning how long Nvidia can maintain its position as the largest AI hardware manufacturer [3]. - Google is perceived to be reshaping the AI chip market with the introduction of its Gemini 3 and self-developed AI chip TPU, prompting Nvidia to emphasize the superior performance and versatility of its products compared to ASICs [3][4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Nvidia is projected to have up to $500 billion in AI GPU infrastructure orders for the calendar years 2025 to 2026, linked to its Blackwell architecture and the upcoming Rubin architecture [4]. - Morgan Stanley's team has verified these expectations after meetings with contacts in Asia and the U.S., leading to an upward revision of revenue forecasts [4]. - Despite the anticipated increase in competition in the AI chip market, Nvidia is expected to maintain the best cost-performance ratio and secure a broader range of AI applications and workloads compared to competitors [5].