华尔街看涨呼声下美银独唱“降温”逆调：标普500狂奔三年后 明年将进入“低超额收益”阶段

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America predicts limited upside for the U.S. stock market in 2026 after three consecutive years of double-digit returns, with the S&P 500 expected to close around 7100 points by the end of next year, reflecting a 4% increase from recent closing prices [1] Group 1: Market Predictions - The S&P 500 index has risen approximately 16% year-to-date in 2025, following gains of over 23% in the previous two years [1] - Deutsche Bank forecasts the S&P 500 to reach 8000 points next year, while Morgan Stanley predicts 7800 points, and JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs project 7500 and 7600 points respectively, indicating a potential for the index to achieve a fourth consecutive year of 10% or more returns [4] - A more optimistic scenario suggests that if corporate earnings significantly exceed market expectations, the S&P 500 could surge to 8500 points, a 24% increase from recent levels [4] Group 2: Market Conditions and Risks - Current market liquidity remains abundant, but future trends may lean towards contraction rather than expansion, with reduced stock buybacks and increased capital expenditures [4] - Concerns exist regarding a potential "growth gap" in the AI sector, as significant investments in AI by large tech companies have yet to translate into profits [1] - Subramanian acknowledges the existence of bubble risks but believes a market crash is unlikely, citing lower stock allocation by investors compared to 2000 and a more tempered enthusiasm for speculative, unprofitable stocks [5]