XIAOMI(HK:01810) Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2025-12-05 01:40Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs believes that while the Doubao AI phone is "popular," it faces significant challenges in system permissions, data acquisition, and application connectivity, highlighting the structural advantages of smartphone giants like Xiaomi [1][3]. Group 1: Doubao AI Phone and Market Context - Doubao AI phone assistant, launched by ByteDance on December 1, aims to integrate a large language model (LLM) into mobile operating systems for enhanced user interaction [2]. - The Doubao model has become popular among several smartphone OEMs, with daily token generation reaching 1.3 trillion in May, accounting for 8% of total token consumption [2]. Group 2: Challenges for Third-Party AI Agents - Third-party AI agents face three core challenges for large-scale application: 1. System-level operational permissions are required to read screen content, simulate user behavior, and access system services, which current smartphone OEMs are unlikely to fully open [3]. 2. System-level memory capabilities are crucial for training and optimizing AI agents, which third-party AI lacks compared to OEMs that can access comprehensive user data [3]. 3. Cross-application interface connectivity depends on the openness of third-party internet application interfaces, which may be restricted by companies aiming to build closed ecosystems [3]. Group 3: Market Structure and Competitive Barriers - The Chinese smartphone market is highly consolidated, with the top six manufacturers (vivo, OPPO, Honor, Apple, Xiaomi, Huawei) accounting for over 90% of shipment volume, making it difficult for new entrants to disrupt the market [5][6]. - In contrast, the Chinese New Energy Vehicle (NEV) market is more fragmented, allowing space for new players with software differentiation [5]. Group 4: Xiaomi's Competitive Advantages - Xiaomi is advancing its "people x vehicle x home" ecosystem strategy, with AI as a core component, and is expected to spend over 7 billion RMB on AI R&D by 2025, representing 22% of its total R&D expenses [7]. - Xiaomi's AI assistant, "Super XiaoAI," has achieved significant penetration, with a 71% usage rate among Xiaomi smartphone users as of September 2025 [7][11]. - "Super XiaoAI" has integrated deep functionalities across various core scenarios, including social media, e-commerce, and productivity services, enhancing its competitive position [8][9][10].