KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-12-05 06:16Core Insights - The traditional belief that older wines are more valuable is being challenged, as recent data shows that the prices of newer Moutai products are lower than those of older vintages [1][2][13] Price Fluctuations - The price of 2025 Moutai has dropped to 1550 yuan per bottle, while the 2024 vintage is priced at 1630 yuan, indicating a price inversion where newer products are cheaper than older ones [1] - The 2023 Moutai has also seen a decline, with the original box price falling to 1860 yuan, and the single bottle price to 1720 yuan, reflecting a significant drop in value [2] - The price gap between original box and single bottle Moutai has narrowed significantly, suggesting a decrease in the collectible value of original box products [2] Supply and Demand Restructuring - Moutai's production capacity has increased to over 56,000 tons in 2023, up from less than 40,000 tons in 2018, leading to a continuous increase in market supply [4] - The consumer base is shifting, with individual buyers now accounting for over 50% of sales for high-priced Moutai, compared to 35% the previous year, indicating a change in purchasing behavior [5] Market Dynamics - There is a growing disconnect between Moutai's stock price and the price of the actual product, with the stock price showing slight increases while the price of Moutai continues to decline [7] - The investment logic surrounding Moutai as an alternative asset is being reevaluated, with annualized returns dropping from over 30% in 2021 to negative 15% this year [7] Channel Impact - Moutai's recent channel reforms, including the expansion of direct sales through the "i Moutai" platform, have led to a significant price discrepancy between official prices and market prices, increasing pressure on distributors [9] - Distributors are experiencing reduced demand, with inventory turnover slowing down, prompting some to consider shifting to mid-range brands due to declining profit margins on Moutai [9] Changing Consumer Preferences - Sales data indicates a 23% increase in the volume of white wines priced between 300-800 yuan, outpacing the growth of high-end wines priced above 1000 yuan [12] - Consumers are becoming more price-sensitive, opting for more affordable brands over Moutai for personal consumption, while still considering Moutai for important business occasions [12] Industry Reevaluation - The ongoing price adjustments in the wholesale market are prompting a reevaluation of the long-standing value system in the industry, as the expectation that older vintages will always command higher prices is being challenged [13]